image source, Reuters
Sirens sounded across northern Israel this morning, as they do most days, but the Israeli military later said it was a “false alarm”.
For the Israelis, it was a reminder of how quickly and easily Iran could retaliate if it wanted to.
North of Lebanon's border, there are about 150,000 missiles fired at Israel by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group, not ordinary missiles, but advanced, accurate and powerful missiles capable of hitting Israeli targets within minutes. At any time upon Iran's instructions.
Despite Israel's offensive against Iran, the streets of Jerusalem were quiet, people went about their work in preparation for the Sabbath, and people flocked to Tel Aviv's beaches in large numbers as usual.
Officials said there was no change in the guidance issued and no instructions for people to go to shelters.
It reflects the range and scale of the Israeli airstrikes on Iran to begin with, and Israel's choice to strike on the birthday of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who turns 85 today.
But if the strike is against military targets linked to last weekend's Iranian attack on Israel — such as an air base, a drone factory or a missile storage facility — it could be seen as a disciplined response by Israel's Western allies. Searched for a long time.
Diplomats in Europe and the United States fear that Israel will retaliate with a so-called “massive” strike that would exceed the range of last weekend's strike by Iran, involving more than 300 drones and missiles. Nuclear facilities have led to a similar Iranian retaliation, which could spark an all-out regional war.
But instead, it appears to have sent a message to Tehran that Israel can strike unhindered into Iranian territory. .
image source, EPA
Former Israeli military spokesman Jonathan Conricus said: “Iran is trying to retreat into the shadows and downplay the significance of the Israeli attack on the strategic city of Isfahan, but I think they got the message: Israel can penetrate Iranian defenses and strike anywhere. It's located.”
By not publicly admitting responsibility for the attack – common – the Israeli war cabinet made it difficult for hard-line members of the ruling coalition to criticize the limited nature of the attack, thus avoiding political controversy, but that did not stop some.
The far-right Israeli national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, said a few days ago that Israel would “go crazy” in response to the Iranian attack, a minister trusted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared this morning. Less impressed, there's a word posted on the X Platform (formerly Twitter): “weak.”
Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid criticized National Defense Minister Itamar Ben Gvir after he wrote a post following reports of Israeli strikes inside Iran.
“Never before has a minister in the defense cabinet caused such serious damage to the country's security, image and international standing,” Lapid said on stage X.
He added: “In an unforgivable one-word tweet, Ben Gvir succeeded in ridiculing and exposing Israel from Tehran to Washington.”
Some ultra-Orthodox religious leaders are reported to be warning the warring government against launching a strike without US support, which would give Netanyahu cover for a limited attack on Iran, but if the strike is not the start of a series of attacks, some Israelis are not satisfied.
Speaking after last weekend's Iranian attack, high-tech businessman Daniel Grenzweig, 65, said: “We have to attack them, they have to realize that this is not right. It can be tolerated. I wouldn't recommend destroying their nuclear facilities, but if they do, I don't have a problem with that” behavior.
Not all Israelis agree with this view.
In a poll released earlier this week by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 52% said they believed Israel should not respond, and 48% said it should.
The poll found that only 28% of people support military action, 34% oppose it, and 38% don't know, even if it leads to a large-scale war.
So, as Israel waits for Iran's response, many wake up with real fears about what will happen next, and the risk of miscalculations, and we don't know if any additional strikes against Iran are being discussed.
I have spoken to expats living in Israel who are seriously considering evicting their families, and the Australian government has urged its citizens to leave Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories.
The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem urged U.S. citizens to remain vigilant, warning that the security environment could change rapidly.
Israelis were preparing for the start of the Passover holiday next week and are now waiting to see when and how Iran decides to respond.
