Al Jazeera Net reporters
London – The conflict has been subject to various assessments and readings of aspects of the raging military and political conflict between the two sides, as Israeli political positions re-emerge on the nature of a possible response to the Iranian attack following Tel Aviv's targeting of Tehran's consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus.
Some of these assessments take into account the intersections between the current Iranian-Israeli tension and the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, while others read them in light of a deferred conflict between the two sides that now finds a more appropriate military and political situation. To explode, others link them to more important international and regional balances that constrain them more closely.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Julian Barnes Dassey, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations' (ECFR) program on the Middle East and North Africa, warned that the current escalation between Iran and Israel is heading towards uncertain paths.
tension
Tassi asserts that neither side of the conflict can control the tension and uncertainty affecting the region, which could end in a regional war.
The expert believes that the Iranians could not confirm whether the Iranians would launch a direct attack on their territory, but they could respond to any such attack in a severe and unprecedented manner compared to the nature of the drone strike, which they insisted was deliberate. A series of limited strikes with a pre-defined target, and aimed at provoking a full-scale war in the region.
In doing so, the Iranians strike a balance between exposing their embassy in Syria to Israeli attack and their desire to avoid direct conflict with Israel.
However, The British expert believes The Iranian choice to limit the scale and nature of an attack on Israeli targets calls into question and calls into question Iran's deterrence capabilities.
He pointed out that the “brutal manner” in which the attack was carried out did not affect the ability of Israel and its allies to successfully counter it on a large scale, which would damage the reputation of the Iranian deterrence and show that it was not. At a time when Tel Aviv can defend its territory and launch costly strikes against Iranian targets.
Dangerous situation
The director of the Middle East and North Africa program added that the nature of the Iranian response could send clear signals to decision-makers in Tel Aviv that Tehran has neither the will nor the will to engage in direct war against Israel.
He explained that leaders in Tel Aviv could pick up on this signal and decide that the current situation is more appropriate to launch an attack against Iran.
Julian Barnes Tassi believes that neighboring Arab countries are aware of the seriousness of the moment the region is experiencing and have opened more than one channel of communication with the various actors in the conflict to avoid a military “reciprocal exchange” between Israel and Israel. Iran is spiraling into a regional war that is difficult to contain.
Arab countries with normalization and cooperation agreements with Tel Aviv and the United States are coordinating to block an Israeli response to the attack, he said, while others are reaching out to the Iranians to limit the level of tension.
He emphasized that the thread that regulates the various Arab efforts is to prevent the region from being drawn into a regional war, despite Iranian strikes countering the air defenses of some Arab countries when Iranian drones cross their borders. , renewing the strategic alliance between Arab capitals and Tel Aviv to counter what has been described as the “Iranian threat.”
The attack is once again rallying international support for Tel Aviv, whose image was damaged when Israel launched a war against the Gaza Strip, but the focus of regional countries is now on avoiding uncalculated escalation.
The error of underestimation
A British expert insists that Israel's decision whether or not to retaliate against an Iranian attack is the key determinant of developments in the region.
Although there is now a level of confidence in Tel Aviv that foiled the attack, he says it would be a mistake to imagine that a more brutal and powerful attack could not be launched against Israel if Iran's lands were targeted. It is considered an existential threat.
Regarding the role that European countries can play in reducing the level of tension in the region, Barnes Dassey believes that the Europeans can play an important role in putting pressure on the parties to the conflict to stop the current wave of extremes.
He emphasized that the performance of this role is linked to the nature of coordination between them and the Americans and the desire of Washington and its Western allies to deliver a clear message to Israel. The region is a comprehensive war.
The message included a focus on political and diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and the possibility of a tense and violent regional war if the ceasefire were to continue.
