Why has Iran reduced its military presence in Syria? Betrayal, Disguise and Gift
Has Iran already reduced its military presence in Syria? This may represent a partial ceding of a strategic position in the conflict with Israel, but it is not clear whether Tehran is doing this as a temporary tactical move or an advanced step in the context of imminent dramatic change in the region.
Iranian forces evacuated Damascus and headquarters in the south of the country, all the way to the Golan border, Agence France-Presse reported, citing sources who indicated the decision was a precaution after the strikes became more targeted. Key leaders of the “Iranian Revolutionary Guard”.
In early April, a missile attack that Tehran claimed was carried out by Israel targeted the Iranian consulate and led to the death of 7 Revolutionary Guards, including two leaders, one of whom was Iranian veteran Mohammad Reza Sahedi. Army officer in Syria.
In response to the embassy targeting, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel on the night of April 13, the first direct Iranian attack on the Hebrew state, following Israel's airstrikes targeting central Iran last week.
As detailed in a Bloomberg report last week, Iran has not spearheaded the Revolutionary Guards in Syria since the “last painful strike.”
In recent weeks, press reports that have conveyed some information from Iranian sources have attempted to perpetuate the impression that Tehran is reducing its presence in Syria.
However, Iraqi politicians, including a Shiite leader in the “Unifying Framework” coalition, deny that Iran has “abandoned the strategic importance of Syria, not (President Bashar) al-Assad” in the conflict with Israel.
“Even if Iraqi fighters want to go to Syria to fill the vacuum left by the Iranian army, the move could be indirect,” politician Asharq told Al-Awsad, and pointed out that “Iran's presence – in the conventional field.” Consciousness – defined from the beginning.
Citing a source close to Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hezbollah fighters and other Iraqis routed Iranian forces in the Damascus countryside, Daraa, Quneitra and Damascus.
Two sources close to the Iraqi units said that “Kattayib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba have received requests from Tehran to send fighters with previous field experience to Syrian territory,” without confirming that they actually went there.
Iraqi politician Asharq al-Awsad said, “Iranian strategy does not work this way (…) it cannot abandon the direction of weapons as the most important country.”
A second politician said, “The withdrawal leak may have deceived the Iranian tactic that they left Syria,” and he explained his words, “This camouflage gives enough time to the third or fourth party to investigate the information leak. .”
Asharq Al-Awsat's contacts with politicians and former officials associated with the Syria file resulted in three hypotheses that explain the meaning of the talk about reducing the Iranian presence in Syria.
“Treason and Spies”
A former government official in Baghdad, who is linked to the Syrian file and met with Assad several times between 2015 and 2019, says Iran now strongly suspects that Syrian security officials and leaders colluded against the Iranians to leak the third and fourth. Party information on their movement into Syria.
“The Iranians are investigating the matter, but they are anticipating events by taking precautionary measures,” the official explained to Asharq Al-Awsad. Regarding official figures publicly associated with the Revolutionary Guards.
Iranian media reported on April 13 that General Mortesa Ghorbanibar, Chief Adviser to the Revolutionary Guards Commander, was investigating the whereabouts and visits of Mohammad Reza Sahedi, commander of the Guard Forces in Syria and Lebanon. leaked.
“There are many spies in Syria and Lebanon, and the enemy can track individuals through satellites and communications network… The enemy is spying from multiple channels,” Ghorbanifer said. He added: “All a hacker can do is send encrypted information to the enemy.”
According to Bloomberg, citing a Syrian dissident opposed to the Assad regime who said he spoke with an Iranian official, Iranian suspicions focused on the 18 leaders killed in a short period of time.
According to the agency, what is significant about the dissidents' words is that Iran launched a joint investigation between the two countries, trying to find possible security violations, and at a certain point, Iran chose to conduct an independent investigation with Lebanon. Hezbollah to avoid the participation of Syrian intelligence.
An Iraqi official told Asharq Al-Awsat, “Iran admits to infiltrating Syria, and Iraqi units have been advised by Tehran to improve handling of their phones or turn them off completely, as Lebanese Hezbollah did before them.”
However, the investigation and suspicions of Iran's “betrayal of the Syrian security services” did not prompt Syria to abandon its strategic importance in troubling Israel: “I know (Syrian President Bashar), however, Al-Assad has not offered anything of strategic value, and Syria's position is important for influencing Israel's security, And even if Assad says goodbye to the Iranians, this cannot be abandoned.
However, the Bloomberg report concluded that Assad was unaware of the security breaches that led to the targeting of Revolutionary Guard leaders, while the same Agence France-Presse report said that the withdrawal of Iranian forces from several provinces in Syria had begun earlier. year but finally his speed.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a batch of Iranian advisers left several parts of the country, including Banias, in March.
Iran maintains its forces in Aleppo Governorate (north) and Deir Ezzor Governorate (east), one of its most influential areas in Syria.
A gift to Biden
Iraqi politicians and sources in the armed forces say Iran will not engage in open conflict this year, at least not until after the US elections.
Shiite politician Asharq al-Awsad said, “Reducing the Iranian military presence in Syria is targeting US President Joe Biden and giving him a formal victory in the region, not an Iranian preference for Trump or any extremist Republicans. To win the US presidential election.
The Iraqi politician believed there had been an unusually intense exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran in recent months, some of which took place directly and rarely in the presence of Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian.
In the situation of the Iraqi armed forces, the main leaders discuss the Iranian update that reached them after the recent Israeli attack on Isfahan, the continuation of the ceasefire is a decision that has been in force until now, and the assessment that Tehran continues to operate the position does not consider otherwise with the Americans in Iraq and Syria.
Iranian trick
Iraqi sources, who describe themselves as “operational,” take a third scenario based on “knowledge of Iranian tactics,” and they say Iran is deliberately “doing some camouflage” with the leaks.
A source told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Tehran wants to lay a trap for spies in Syria, to identify a network that leaks information by convincing them that they have withdrawn.”
Another source said, “Iraqi leaders are working to verify agents in the Syrian sector,” he said.
However, after Iran increased direct attacks on its interests, it felt the level of international pressure in the Syrian arena and wanted to convince everyone that it had left the field, “Israel and the United States are on the way to loosen their grip on Damascus, especially “information that Syria betrays the Iranians is not new, but has been for months. was determined.
