Overcoming objections from the right, the US House of Representatives is preparing to pass aid to Ukraine.
After a “precious and costly” month-long delay on Ukraine, the US House of Representatives is poised to approve a foreign aid bill on Saturday, after the White House “successfully” held “secret” talks with House Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, leading to the boycott of… conservatives in the Republican Party. Protests from the “Freedom Caucus”.
After three far-right Republican representatives on the “rules committee” responsible for issuing the plans balked, Democrats intervened, defying the usual rules on the work of council committees, and all of them voted to pass the plan. , in the end it received 9 votes.
Right-wing lawmakers who tried to block the plan in committee won their seats on it as part of an offer made last year by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. He agreed to support him only after he gave them decisive influence over it. Johnson previously said he expected the House to vote Saturday. In an interview with the right-wing channel Newsmax on Thursday night, he said: “I'd rather send bullets to Ukraine than send our American soldiers… We don't want to have troops on the ground, let alone prevent that. Ukrainians must put Putin aside.
The Kremlin confirmed on Thursday that the promised US military aid to Ukraine, which will be voted on in Washington on Saturday, after a long deadlock, “will not change anything” in its offensive on the ground by the Russian military.
Nasser Labitan and Trump
Republican sources said the development was seen as a victory for the Biden administration, which has held tough negotiations with Johnson, who has sought to avoid confrontation with extremists in his party, regardless of his policy on sending aid to Ukraine. Until she got the “green light” from party leader former President Donald Trump during a meeting with him in Mar-a-Lago, Florida last week. It was seen as a change in Trump's approach to the Ukraine file after the success of the “inside and outside” contacts, and the level of strength he has advised on the need to support Russia if it wants to end the war.
Johnson's “surprise” approval of aid to Ukraine came amid intelligence warnings that Ukrainians were suffering severe equipment shortages and losing confidence in the United States after months of delays in providing new funds.
CIA Director William Burns warned that Ukraine could lose the war against Russia by the end of 2024 unless the US provides more military aid.
However, more than two years after Russia invaded Ukraine, questions have been raised, particularly from Republicans, about the reasons for the waning US enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine. However, the fluctuating US position regarding supporting allies is not a new thing, as happened in the Korean, Vietnam and Afghanistan wars. The problem of corruption in Ukraine, deeply rooted in its traditions from the former Soviet era, and the continuous dismissal of its senior officials, raise many reservations and questions among the American public about the possibility of delivery. Support it.
Democratic-Republican split
According to a Gallup poll conducted March 1-17, Americans are split on whether US support for Ukraine is sufficient and whether continued support for the war is necessary. As Russian President Vladimir Putin strengthens his ties with China and Iran, his statements indicate he will not stop in Ukraine. However, the majority still believe that helping to restore Ukrainian territory is worth the effort, no matter how long it takes. The poll confirms that Democrats and Republicans have starkly different views on the issue, with more Democrats supporting Ukraine than Republicans.
As of August 2022, a majority of Democrats (77 percent) support helping Ukraine regain land lost to Russia. By contrast, 45 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents support it.
The development of “isolationism”.
John Hardy, a senior researcher on Russian affairs at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, which is affiliated with the Republican political establishment, says the poll confirms the decline in support among Republicans due to a worrying trend within the Republican Party. Towards “isolationism” it carries the slogan “America First”.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, he added: “There are those who argue that the US should end support for Ukraine so that we can focus on confronting China. Some who make this argument do so in good faith, but others are looking for an excuse to justify their opposition to helping Ukraine. In both cases, the US can certainly support Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time. “Also, backing down to Putin would actually encourage Beijing to use it against Taiwan,” Hardy adds. “Not surprisingly, the Taiwanese are strong supporters of US aid to Ukraine.”
Some see the US insistence that Europeans take responsibility for their continent's security, increase military spending and commit themselves to its strategic rival China and avoid new wars, while others believe the US is unwilling to give up. Its “hint” towards the European continent, this time as it seeks to “build” an army to face Russia, is similar to the role played by Israel in the region.
Russia, China and Iran pose different threats, but they are united in their desire to drive America out of their backyard and bully its neighbors, Hardy says. This is partly why Iran and China have increased their support for Russia.
The war is over, but…
However, George Friedman, a strategic political researcher who is considered among the senior political advisers of US administrations, says that the war in Ukraine is over, but no one knows how to end it. He adds: “The problem is that no one is in a position to achieve his goal, but because the US is following the model of World War II and focusing on demanding Russia, it is very difficult to achieve a peace settlement that supports itself. Surrender, it is impossible.” In a relationship based on rebuilding rather than destroying Russia, Moscow could withdraw from the war that ended, and so could Washington.
For his part, Professor Feng Yujun, deputy dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said in an article in The Economist published on April 11 that Russia and Ukraine do not enjoy great advantage and their political positions. Quite the opposite, the fight is unlikely to end soon. But one thing is clear: the conflict represents a turning point in the post-Cold War era, and will have a profound and lasting global impact.
Distance from Russia to China
Feng adds: “There are four main factors influencing the course of the war: the first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians. The second is international support for Ukraine. The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, where competition revolves around a combination of industrial power, command and control, communications and intelligence systems. The last factor is information, and thanks to Vladimir Putin's long stay in power, Feng believes that these factors together make Russia's eventual exit from all occupied Ukrainian territories inevitable Its nuclear capability is not a guarantee of success. he asked.
Regarding China's relations with Russia, Feng said that China's position towards Russia has changed from the position of “unlimited cooperation” before the war to the traditional principles of “non-extinguishment, non-conflict” in early 2022. , and does not target parties. This desire shows that China and Russia are very different countries. Russia seeks to undermine the existing international and regional order through war, while China prefers to settle disputes peacefully.
