Commenting on the escalation of retaliatory attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border, Stratfor said that while a full-scale invasion of Lebanon is unlikely, Israel is considering taking drastic measures in the coming weeks – including strong action against the Hezbollah group inside Lebanon. This creates a risk that a multi-front, protracted war could break out for Israel.
The US intelligence base pointed to Israeli politicians' threat of a broad military operation against Hezbollah and a recent disturbing statement by military officials in which General Herzi Halevi, head of the “Israeli Defense Forces,” said on January 10. Israeli forces will be stationed by the government where necessary to protect them… the northern borders.
He pointed out that the Israeli Ministry of Health has warned hospitals in northern Israel to prepare for a large number of casualties in the event of a large-scale Hezbollah attack, and to plan for the possibility of a shortage of medical supplies in the event of a large-scale Hezbollah attack.
Stratfor added that the comments and warnings came after escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which saw Israel target assassinations of the party's key military leaders and leaders of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Lebanon. Israeli military targets.
The site believes the current Israeli military strategy is to use direct escalation to pressure Hezbollah to withdraw from the border.
If the current military strategy fails to establish a viable buffer zone, Israel will launch its major attacks on Hezbollah's military infrastructure to increase pressure on it.
If these broad offensives fail, Israel will use a legion-scale ground incursion in southern Lebanon to “destroy and control militant territory” and signal that Israel may escalate to a full-scale invasion.
The US website added that Israel has the option of resuming a full-scale invasion once hostilities in Gaza end, although doing so would lead to direct Iranian retaliation against Israel, which is unlikely.
He concluded that Israel would consider this option only if it received full diplomatic support from the US, completed its major military objectives in Gaza, had internal political unity and support for action, and if Hezbollah escalated its attacks to a level. Like launching attacks on Israeli cities. , its threat cannot be ignored.